It’s been three years since NIL (Name, Image, and Likeness) deals changed the college football dramatically. For all the madness that's ensued, though, there’s been surprisingly little analysis of the data behind it all. Let’s break it down...

Rebuilding with Transfers

Rebuilding a program through transfers has become a powerful strategy in college football. Two teams specifically, SMU and Texas State, are leading the charge, each bringing in over 70 transfers since the start of NIL in the 2021 season.

The results speak for themselves. SMU reached the College Football Playoff this year and has played in bowl games for the past two seasons. Texas State has turned its fortunes around, going from zero bowl appearances since joining the Sun Belt in 2013 to making back-to-back bowl games. Since NIL began, Texas State’s record has improved to 23-26 (2021-2024), a huge leap from their 10-38 record (2017-2020).

What sets these teams apart is their efficiency. Both have successfully brought in top-tier talent while keeping departures minimal, boasting an impressive incoming-to-outgoing transfer ratio of 4:1. For programs looking to climb the ranks, this model is showing incredible potential.

Colorado has just as many incoming transfers are SMU and Texas State, but they also rank the highest in outgoing transfers. This has been Deion Sanders' strategy, as he breaks down his approach and calculations in this clip.

Where's Everyone Going?

This heatmap highlights where players are transferring between conferences.

The "P5" schools dominate the transfer activity, as shown in the top left corner. Naturally, this is also where the money flows, with the SEC leading the way in portal activity. Interestingly, most SEC transfers stay within the SEC, followed by moves to other P5 conferences.

Among the P5 conferences, the ACC stands out for an unusual trend: it’s not the top destination for its own outgoing players. Instead, most ACC transfers head to the Big 12, followed by the Big Ten, and only then return to other ACC schools.

The Rich Get Richer

P5 schools dominate the transfer portal not just in volume, but also in the quality of players they attract. On average, each P5 school gains higher-rated players (based on 247 Sports recruit ratings) compared to those they lose. Meanwhile, G5 schools are seeing the opposite trend—they’re losing their best players and bringing in lower-rated talent. The SEC takes the top spot in average rating differential between incoming and outgoing players, while the MAC finds itself at the bottom of the list.

The chart below provides a closer look at average transfer ratings based on their origin and destination conferences. There's a lot to unpack, but the trend is clear: the left side (first four columns) is significantly darker, showing that P5 schools consistently receive higher-caliber players from all conferences, including the G5.

Lastly, let’s examine the average ratings for incoming and outgoing transfers at each school.

P5 schools are generally marked in green, while G5 schools are in red, underscoring the consistent trend of P5 programs gaining higher-rated players than they lose. Top programs like Ohio State, Georgia, Notre Dame, Texas, and Ole Miss boast the highest incoming-to-outgoing rating differentials, while schools like Kent State and Bowling Green find themselves at the bottom of the rankings.

The scatter plot below also shows a sideways U-shape, suggesting that high caliber players leave top tier schools because they are not receiving adequate playing time, whereas high caliber players leave lower tier schools to chase more money after receiving exposure as a result of playing well.

Quantity vs Quality

While we've shared plenty of insights about the quality and quantity of transfers, we haven’t looked at them side by side. The two charts below combine these perspectives, showcasing both the average player ratings and the number of transfers for each school—for both incoming and outgoing players.

That's a Wrap

All data is based on 247 Sports' Transfer Portal database and the insights and charts were created by Formula Bot - the single platform to connect, analyze and visualize your data - powered by AI. With the help of AI, you no longer need to be a technical nerd to build cool charts and generate insights.

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David Bressler